This figure is a visual depiction of the process by which the probability ranges for forecast variables are combined using Monte Carlo analysis which results in a central forecast. In the figure, probability ranges for four hypothetical variables (number of elements per facility, incremental price per element, percentage of elements where construction is structurally impracticable, and percentage of elements with disproportionate costs) are combined using Monte Carlo analysis to come up with a central expected value and probability range for an annual capital cost per hypothetical element.